19 August 2023, Saturday, 17:06 645

It is premature to assess the counteroffensive of AFU, Ukraine has many options - ISW

Editor: Daria Zubkova

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The American publication Washington Post reported that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not reach Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia Region and will not achieve its main goal - to cut the russian land bridge to Crimea. However, Ukraine has many options to stop the russians' critical routes along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and it is currently premature to make assessments. This opinion was expressed by analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in response to the WP publication.

It said that an unverified intelligence assessment stated that "effective russian defensive operations and dense minefields have restrained Ukraine's advance and will continue to do so."

It is also noted that anonymous U.S. officials said that Ukrainian forces would advance a few miles from Melitopol, but no further. As a result, important road and railway lines on which russia depends for the supply of its troops will be within reach of Ukrainian artillery systems. Analysts noted that it is not known from published reports why U.S. intelligence concluded that the capture of Melitopol is the only way to cut off russian logistics routes.

"ISW assessed that Ukraine has many options to cut critical russian land routes along the northern coast of the Sea of Azov, of which the capture of Melitopol is only one," the analysts emphasized.

The ISW emphasized that it is still premature to assess the overall success of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, which are taking place in several directions of advancement to several different obvious goals.

"ISW consistently assesses that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be a protracted, non-linear series of operations that will likely continue in phases at different rates," the summary explained.

Analysts also opined that the Defense Force counteroffensive significantly reduces the number of russian defending forces, and that the overall degradation of the russian defense line creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough that could have potentially significant operational significance.