20 January 2023, Friday, 10:53 806

ISW Predicted When Attack On Ukraine From Belarus May Begin

Editor: Tetiana Herasimova

Читати українською

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The Russians will launch an offensive against Ukraine from Belarus no earlier than autumn 2023.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Military analysts note that the activity of Russian troops in Belarus indicates that an offensive in early 2023 is unlikely, while in the fall this threat looks more serious.

“The most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus. A new MDCOA of an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely,” the ISW states.

It seems more likely that Russian forces may be setting conditions for a new MDCOA of attacking Ukraine from Belarus in late 2023 given recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus plan to conduct major exercises (Zapad 2023 and Union Shield 2023), likely in September 2023.

According to analysts, by that time Russia will have completed the annual draft cycle of autumn 2022 and will be in the cycle of spring 2023, and by autumn 2023, it is quite possible that it will have completed one or more additional calls to the reserve. The delayed deadline for this action plan could allow Russia to sufficiently prepare the military industry to provide a greater share of the necessary materials for a renewed invasion from Belarus than Russia can provide this winter.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yurii Ihnat said that joint air exercises with Russia in Belarus do not yet pose a threat to Ukraine. However, the military is monitoring the situation.

Meanwhile, joint air exercises between Russia and Belarus allowed Russian troops to increase their aviation group located on Belarusian territory.

At the same time, the White House does not yet see the readiness of the Belarusian army to fully enter the war against Ukraine.

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