31 July 2024, Wednesday, 14:34 871

ISW assesses probability of large-scale offensive by russia this summer

Editor: Daria Zubkova

Читати українською

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Russian forces are conducting intermittent and pulsating mechanized attacks, which likely demonstrates their current offensive capability. However, due to material and human limitations, it is unlikely that russia will be able to launch another major summer offensive operation.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW previously noted that russian forces have difficulty conducting simultaneous large-scale offensive operations. They often resort to "pulse" offensive actions in different areas of the front, when the intensity of attacks in one sector decreases and increases in another.

During the summer, the occupiers periodically carried out mechanized assaults in the Lyman, Chasiv Yar and Avdiyivka axes in the Donetsk Region. Recently, they intensified their attacks to the west and southwest of Donetsk. Russian forces also moved units of the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District from Avdiyivka to the southwest of Donetsk. Analysts of the Institute believe that this indicates a change in the priorities of the russian military command due to the lack of tactical success in the Avdiyivka area, directing attention to Donetsk.

Russian forces are likely to deploy additional mechanized forces to the area to exploit weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses and achieve limited territorial advances during the summer of 2024, ISW predicts.

Russian forces were previously believed to have planned to take over the rest of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions in the summer, but they likely revised those plans following the arrival of US military aid to Ukraine in April 2024.

The russian military command may intend to present limited tactical offensives in the west of the Donetsk Region, including the cutting of the Vuhledar-Kostiantynivka highway, as a great victory for the russian people.

It will be recalled that the NSDC denied information about the russians' entry to Toretsk, Donetsk Region.

Meanwhile, in one of the areas of the front, a Bulsae-4 self-propelled anti-tank missile system from North Korea was allegedly spotted with the russian occupiers.