2024-08-27T16:32:00+03:00 War in Ukraine 2024-09-17T04:06:23+03:00

Ukrainian news

ISW names motives for Belarusian troops build-up near border with Ukraine and predicts Lukashenko’s actions

ISW names motives for Belarusian troops build-up near border with Ukraine and predicts Lukashenko’s actions

The Belarusian group's build-up along the Ukrainian border is likely intended to distract and stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider frontline, as Belarusian forces remain unlikely to invade Ukraine due to the constraints faced by Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko.

This is stated in the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of August 26, 2024, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

Thus, ISW notes that the Ukrainian intelligence organization that uses open sources, Frontelligence Insight and Rochan Consulting, indicates that Belarusian combat units, as a rule, operate at only 30-40% of their total strength and rely on mobilization to full-time subdivisions. This indicates that serious preparations for a large-scale Belarusian invasion of Ukraine will be more evident, since Belarus has not announced a general mobilization.

The Frontelligence investigation also noted that the scale of a hypothetical Belarusian attack on Ukraine would likely be limited, and suggested that Belarusian forces may be conducting this operation to distract Ukrainian forces from their efforts elsewhere on the front and thus support Russian forces, operating throughout the territory of Ukraine and the Kursk Oblast.

In addition, the spokesman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Andrii Demchenko reported on August 26 that the current number of russian troops in Belarus is insufficient for a significant coordinated invasion of Ukraine from the border of the Gomel Oblast.

"A Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, or even Belarus' military involvement in the war, would degrade Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko‘s ability to defend his regime (and be very unpopular domestically), and ISW has previously assessed that Lukashenko is extremely unlikely to risk combat with Ukraine that could weaken his regime or drastically increase Belarusian domestic discontent," ISW notes.

In particular, Belarus will hold a presidential election in February 2025, and Lukashenko likely wants to maintain control over public sentiment, as well as, the agency said, access to his military to quell any election-related protests, as he did at the end of 2020. The loss of capabilities of the Belarusian military, which may occur as a result of hostilities in Ukraine, will impair Lukashenko's ability to suppress future protests.

Also, Lukashenko probably wants to avoid being involved in the russia’s war against Ukraine, in order to avoid the domestic political costs that such involvement may cause. Possible Belarusian mobilization, expected losses on the battlefield, further international isolation of Belarus and negative economic consequences are likely to increase public discontent and negate Lukashenko's efforts to restore stability to his regime from 2020, ISW emphasizes.

“Additionally, Lukashenko has worked to maintain some level of Belarusian autonomy and sovereignty vis-a-vis Russia while portraying Belarus as Russia‘s equal partner in order to safeguard his power from the Kremlin’s increased desire to subordinate Belarus to Moscow through the Union State. Belarus directly joining Russia’s war would indicate that Moscow has succeeded in eliminating Lukashenko’s maneuvering space and established suzerainty over Belarus,” the analysts added.

ISW noted that Belarus deployed personnel to the Ukrainian border in late 2022-early 2023, similar to current deployments, and assessed that these efforts served primarily to stretch Ukrainian forces along the theater of operations and disrupt their operations, thus supporting russian operations.

"Belarus may be once again conducting such activity to fix Ukraine’s limited forces near Ukraine’s international border with Belarus in support of a Russian campaign design that seeks to stretch Ukrainian forces thin throughout the theater. Belarus’ support of Russian efforts is a strong indicator of the extent to which the Kremlin has been consolidating its control over Belarus since 2020," the agency concluded.

Recall that on August 23, the Belarusian monitoring channel Belarusian Hajun stated that since August 10, the Armed Forces of Belarus had transferred about a thousand personnel to the Gomel Oblast, which borders Ukraine.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on August 25, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine called on Belarus to withdraw the troops actively moving to the border.

Meanwhile, analysts at the American Robert Lansing Institute (RLI) believe that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, is preparing to hand over power. One of the reasons for this is strong pressure from the aggressor country russia.