06 September 2024, Friday, 16:43 1154

ISW analyzes how AFU operation in Kursk Oblast affects the entire theater of operations

Editor: Daria Zubkova

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The operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk Oblast has an impact on the entire theater of operations, and this impact will likely continue on russian offensive and defensive capabilities after the end of the Pokrovsk offensive.

This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Thus, it is indicated that Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated in an interview with CNN published on September 5 that the Ukrainian invasion thwarted the planned russian attack on the Sumy Region and "reduced the threat" of a russian invasion of northern Ukraine.

Syrskyi also stated that the main goals of the Ukrainian invasion were to prevent russian troops from using the Kursk Oblast as a springboard for preparing offensive operations in Ukraine, to distract russian troops from other regions of Ukraine, to create a "security zone," to capture russian prisoners of war, and to raise Ukrainian morale.

Syrskyi said that russian forces have transferred "tens of thousands" of military personnel to the Kursk Oblast, which were previously assigned to strengthen russian offensive operations in Ukraine, including small units of several elite russian airborne units.

In particular, according to reports, russian troops transferred parts of the 56th Airborne Regiment (7th Airborne Division), as well as the 11th and 83rd Brigades, to the Kursk Oblast.

Analysts have noted that the russian military command relies heavily on conscripts, regular and irregular troops transferred from lower-priority sectors of Ukraine, such as northern Kharkiv Region, to conduct defensive operations in the Kursk Oblast.

The ISW added that it is highly unlikely that these forces will be sufficient to dislodge Ukrainian troops from the Kursk Oblast in the event that the Ukrainians choose to defend the populated areas of the region under their control.

In addition, the russian military command may have also redeployed at least a company of the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) from the direction of Pokrovsk in mid-August 2024.

"The redeployment of elements of the Central Military District, which, according to reports, is tasked with completing the capture of Pokrovsk, shows that the russian military command has not been able to completely isolate its priority offensive operations from the influence of the Ukrainian invasion, despite putin's assertions," the analysts emphasized.

It is indicated that the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk Oblast also allowed Ukraine to challenge russian control over the joint military initiative in Ukraine. According to analysts, russia has held the joint military initiative in Ukraine since at least November 2023, which has allowed the russian military command to determine the place, time, scale and requirements of hostilities in Ukraine at its own discretion and forced Ukraine to spend human and material resources on reactive defense operations.

"Syrskyi recently said that russia has redeployed about 30,000 troops from Ukraine to the Kursk Oblast in response to the Ukrainian invasion. A significant additional redeployment of russian troops from the front lines in Ukraine is likely to be necessary to allow russia to regain control of its territory in Kursk, as estimated by representatives of American intelligence, and this will significantly affect russia's offensive operations and its ability to prepare for future operations," the analysts concluded.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, according to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during the fighting in the Kursk Oblast, the russian army lost approximately 6,000 soldiers killed and wounded.

Also, British intelligence believes that the increase in the number of russian casualties in Ukraine is related to the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk Oblast, as well as the constant pressure of the russians on the Pokrovsk Axis, where russia relies on mass.