2024-09-14T13:55:00+03:00 War in Ukraine 2024-09-23T04:00:02+03:00

Ukrainian news

ISW analysts believe that russia will have to transfer more troops to Kursk Oblast

ISW analysts believe that russia will have to transfer more troops to Kursk Oblast

Russian forces continue to counterattack across the Ukrainian front in the Kursk Oblast, but the russian military will likely have to redeploy additional units from other parts of the theater to the Kursk Oblast to create a force group capable of conducting a sustained counteroffensive operation.

This is stated in the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of September 13, 2024, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

"ISW continues to track observable Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast but has not yet observed large-scale combat operations indicating that Russian forces have started a large-scale concerted counteroffensive operation aimed at completely expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast," the analytical note says.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on September 13 that russian forces had begun counteroffensive operations in the Kursk Oblast, and Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder said on September 12 that the U.S. had observed russian units begin to attempt to conduct "some type of counteroffensive" operation, which Ryder described as "marginal".

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said on September 13 that there are 33,000 to 35,000 russian servicemen in the Kursk Oblast.

Zelenskyy said that the russian military command intends to concentrate 60,000 to 70,000 troops in the Kursk Oblast, which is significantly more than the 50,000 troops that, according to American officials, russia will need to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk Oblast.

Until now, russian authorities have largely relied on poorly trained and equipped conscripts and small units of russian regular and irregular forces to counter the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Oblast, and it is unlikely that the majority of the current Russian contingent in Kursk Oblast consists of experienced combat units.

A Russian counteroffensive operation to retake territory in the Kursk region will very likely require even more manpower and equipment than Russia has already concentrated in the region - especially if most of the units already involved lack combat experience. Russian Airborne Forces, which were recently redeployed to Kursk Oblast from the front in Ukraine, currently bear the primary responsibility for counterattacks in Kursk Oblast.

This indicates that the russian military command may intend to engage units that are considered more "elite" or combat-capable for the reconquest of territory.

The russian military will undoubtedly be forced to redeploy units already engaged in offensive operations or operational reserves from Ukraine to the Kursk Oblast to form the combat-ready units needed to conduct a major counteroffensive operation and then guard the border against invasion.

ISW Key Takeaways for September 13:

- The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has reportedly spoiled planned Russian offensive operations along the international border area that likely aimed to expand the area of active combat operations across a broader front in northeastern Ukraine.

- Russian forces continue to counterattack throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, but the Russian military will likely have to redeploy additional elements from elsewhere in the theater to Kursk Oblast to establish a force grouping capable of pursuing a sustained counteroffensive operation.

- Russian forces appear to be testing more effective mechanized assault tactics west of Donetsk City, although Russian armored vehicles remain vulnerable to Ukrainian strike and drone capabilities.

- Ukraine and Russia conducted their second prisoner of war (POW) exchange since the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast on September 13.

- Russia continues efforts to strengthen strategic military ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), North Korea, and Iran to support its war effort in Ukraine.

- Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian and Ukrainian assaults in the area on September 13.

- Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

- Russian authorities continue attempts to coerce minorities and Ukrainian youth living in occupied Ukraine to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense (MoD) to avoid conducting a wider mobilization.